问答题Practice 6　　If there's a threat of dangerous deflation—a general fall in prices—the causes lie as much in Europe and Japan as in the United States. The inevitable collapse of America's speculative boom need not have been especially damaging if the worl

President Jiang Zemin’s visit to America helped the United States and China to have a better _____ understanding.

Which of the following is an appropriate title for this passage?

Practice 2　　The news couldn’t be worse. Three years of recession or anemic economic growth, Argentina’s debt default and collapse and—more recently—Bolivia’s president run out of office by indigenous people fed up with his pro-business, pro-Washington agenda. Taken together, these trials have seemingly erased the promise of prosperity that wafted across the region a decade ago. Now there’s the specter of a return to the dark days of the 1970s and 80s when economic and political chaos were the norm. Social eruptions have prompted a wide-ranging and contentious reappraisal of the economic orthodoxy—the neoliberal model that has shaped policy in Latin America for the past 15 years. Market-oriented structural reforms have succeeded in a few crucial ways: they ended the ruinous era of hyperinflation, and inculcated a sense of fiscal responsibility among profligate governments. But belt-tightening has not led to the robust economic performance promised when reforms began. After enjoying encouraging GDP expansion in the early and mid-1990s, Latin America has stumbled through about five years of economic stagnation that have left the region’s have-nots in a surly mood. Latin America desperately wants increased access to markets in the United States and Europe, but the region doesn’t want to pursue trade deals on what it perceives to be unfair terms. (Newsweek)

Passage 7U. S consumer prices climbed faster than expected in May, further fanning investor fears over inflation. Stock markets around the world have cracked sharply lower the past few weeks, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing all the ground it had gained so far this year. Japan’s stock market is down 11% on the year; gold has had its biggest slide in a decade and a half; and many emerging markets are wobbling. After Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report from the Labor Department, which showed a 0.4 percent increase in prices for May (core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3 percent), the stock market made a comeback. But with future interest rate hikes now starting to be priced into the market, investor fears that central bankers around the world will go overboard and continue to drive rates higher is set to further spook markets. This is no trading correction that investors have to absorb. The real risk of a jarring bear market has emerged.　　But while the trauma that inflation created for investors in the 1970s is still close to the surface, the sudden frenzy is misplaced. Powerful forces in the world economy continue to keep prices largely in check.　　Over the past decade, inflation has been a minor threat compared with brutal deflationary shocks. They started with the collapse of the Mexican peso in the mid-1990s. In 1997, much of eastern Asia’s flourishing economy was leveled. Next were Russia, Turkey and Argentina; Brazil teetered on the brink. By early 2001, Silicon Valley, the pride of the U. S. economy, was crashing, while entire sectors of the so-called New Economy disintegrated.　　The tech wreck may be over, but it has left a legacy of low prices. Tech companies had to dump on the market everything from fiberoptic networks to computer chips, as desperate investors struggled to raise cash. That slashed telecommunication costs at the very moment that emerging markets were producing a skilled and hungry generation of information workers. Result? The offshore outsourcing revolution and downward pressure on global production costs that keeps inflation under control. Equally powerful are the ultra-low-cost emerging-market manufacturing bases, led by China. With more than 1 billion people set to enter the urban labor markets of China, India, Brazil and Indonesia in the next 20 years, all those pressures on prices will only intensify.　　More immediate forces are also at work to keep prices from surging. Despite some wishful thinking, growth in Europe is slowing, not accelerating. A large part of U. S. growth has been driven by booming real estate prices. But in the past two years, the Fed has increased rates 16 times, so real estate-driven consumption is yesterday’s news. Tomorrow’s story will be the sharp fall in U. S. growth as consumers face higher mortgage costs. That dynamic could become particularly nasty, given the record level of U. S. household debt, government deficit and unequaled current-account shortfall.　　Investors are often caught flat-footed when markets slide. In 2001-02, deflation was the fear of the day, but few investors at the time saw the opportunity in commodities, which were going for a fraction of today’s prices. Today investors are obsessed with inflation, while government and top- tier corporate bonds are shunned.　　That should be telling us something. What is it? In the past few years, the central banks of Japan, the U. S. and Europe have cut interest rates so aggressively that the real cost of borrowing fell to, effectively, below zero. That spurred extraordinary amounts of debt financing by governments and corporations. But now, as the global credit cycle tightens, some of the marginal investments will quickly become unsustainable. If central bankers keep raising interest rates, deeper cracks would open in the world economy.　　What is really troubling markets is not inflation. It is the fear that central banks may have tightened too much, and will tighten further. If that happens, the recent market shock would be merely the precursor to a still more dramatic quake.　　1. What is the situation of the world financial markets recently? What is the situation expected to be in the near future?　　2. What does the author mean by “the tech wreck may be over, but it has left a legacy of low prices”? (Para.4)　　3. What is the relationship between real estate market and economic growth in US in the past and in the near future?　　4. According to the author, what are the “powerful forces” that can keep inflation “largely in check”?

Pills and lotions have been invented in Western Europe and North America_______.

Practice 4　　Europeans have long aspired to end American dominance as the world’s economic leader. The single market and the euro are widely seen as essential steps in this direction. But is Europe ready to lead? Do Europeans understand what it would take?　　Despite a budding recovery, the United States is hardly the model of economic health that it once was. On several issues—from steel tariffs to the resurgent deficit to shady corporate practices—America has demonstrated a growing failure of leadership. Over the past two decades the United States has shown what it takes to be an economic superpower—a strong currency, openness to imports, concessions in trade negotiations and articulating an economic philosophy for the rest of the world. Now that it’s apparently fading on so many counts, the question becomes: is Europe willing and prepared to do what the United States once did, in order to supplant it?　　First the exchange-rate issue. The euro will probably continue strengthening against the dollar, if only because of America’s huge and growing $400 billion-a-year current-account deficit. This means that, every year, the United States borrows about 4 percent of its GDP on world markets. If international investors lose confidence in the U.S. economy, fewer people will want to hold dollar assets. The dollar will fall—and the euro will appreciate.　　This may be a normal market cycle, but there will be consequences. Among others, European companies will see their U.S. profits erode. What happens if the dollar falls farther and faster than anticipated? Are European industrial companies ready to compete with a euro worth $1.10, $1.15 or $1.25? The flip side of the much-desired strong euro would almost certainly be a surge in imports from the United States and the rest of the world. Exports might fall, resulting in job losses—perhaps even a trade deficit for the European Union.　　Europeans are rightfully angry at new U.S. steel tariffs. But given the sheer size of America’s trade deficit, Washington’s policies are actually relatively moderate. The question remains: if Europe were in a similar position, would its voters and politicians be equally sensitive to what’s best for the global economy? Would European politicians be able to face the incredible pressures that would build for protectionist measures if it were Europe, and not the United States, that ran a persistent trade deficit? Not likely, I fear.　　America’s retreat from its leading role presents an opportunity for the European Union. Trouble is, its political institutions have yet to mature to the point where they can resolve trade disputes, say, by looking beyond the immediate and narrow self-interests of its member states.　　Europe’s chance for economic leadership may come sooner than expected. But too many Europeans haven’t yet grasped the basic secret of America’s leadership—the hard work and tough choices that are involved. That’s what Europeans now face, in this season of elections and decision making that will shape their future. Let’s hope they recognize that such sacrifices will pay off for them, as well as for the rest of the world.

Passage 1　　(1)______ There is a tendency to see Japan as a harbinger of all that is doomed in the economies of the euro zone and America--even though figures released on November 14th show its economy grew by an annualised 6% in the third quarter, rebounding quickly from the March tsunami and nuclear disaster.　　Look dispassionately at Japan's economic performance over the past ten years, though, and "the second lost decade", if not the first, is a misnomer. Much of what tarnishes Japan's image is the result of demography—more than half its population is over 45—as well as its poor policy in dealing with it. (2)______　　In aggregate, Japan's economy grew at half the pace of America's between 2001 and 2010. Yet if judged by growth in GDP per person over the same period, then Japan has outperformed America and the euro zone. In part this is because its population has shrunk whereas America's population has increased.　　Though growth in labour productivity fell slightly short of America's from 2000 to2008, total factor productivity, a measure of how a country uses capital and labour, grew faster, according to the Tokyo-based Asian Productivity Organisation. Japan's unemployment rate is higher than in 2000, yet it remains about half the level of America and Europe.　　Besides supposed stagnation, the two other curses of the Japanese economy are debt and deflation. Yet these also partly reflect demography and can be overstated. People often think of Japan as an indebted country. In fact, it is the world's biggest creditor nation, boasting 253 trillion ($3.3 trillion) in net foreign assets.　　To be sure, its government is a large debtor; its net debt as a share of GDP is one of the highest in the OECD. (3)______ Social security expenditure doubled as a share of GDP between 1990 and 2010 to pay rising pensions and health-care costs. Over the same period tax revenues have shrunk.　　(4)______ That gives it plenty of room to manoeuvre. Takatoshi Ito, an economist at the University of Tokyo, says increasing the consumption tax by 20 percentage points from its current 5%—putting it at the level of a high-tax European country—would raise 50 trillion and immediately wipe out Japan's fiscal deficit.　　That sounds draconian. But here again, demography plays a role. Officials say the elderly resist higher taxes or benefit cuts, and the young, who are in a minority, do not have the political power to push for what is in their long-term interest. David Weinstein, professor of Japanese economy at Columbia University in New York, says the elderly would rather give money to their children than pay it in taxes. Ultimately that may mean that benefits may shrink in the future. "If you want benefits to grow in line with income, as they are now, you need a massive increase in taxes of about10% of GDP," he says.　　(5)______ After all, falling prices give savers—most of whom are elderly—positive real yields even when nominal interest rates are close to zero. Up until now, holding government bonds has been a good bet. Domestic savers remain willing to roll them over, which enables the government to fund its deficits. Yet this comes at a cost to the rest of the economy. In short, Japan's economy works better for those middle-aged and older than it does for the young. But it is not yet in crisis, and economists say there is plenty it could do to raise its potential growth rate, as well as to lower its debt burden.[A] Falling tax revenues are a problem. The flip side, though, is that Japan has the lowest tax take of any country in the OECD, at just 17% of GDP.[B] Demography helps explain Japan's stubborn deflation, too, he says.[C] Even so, most Japanese have grown richer over the decade.[D] However, the public debt has been accrued not primarily through wasteful spending or "bridges to nowhere", but because of aging, says the IMF.[E] Young people also express their strong dissatisfaction towards economical injustice.[F] The Japanese say they suffer from an economic disease called “structural pessimism”. Overseas too,[G] In fact, the financial situation is not that bad during the last decade.

Practice 6　　If there's a threat of dangerous deflation—a general fall in prices—the causes lie as much in Europe and Japan as in the United States. The inevitable collapse of America's speculative boom need not have been especially damaging if the world's other advanced economies were healthy. Their expanding appetite for imports would have bolstered the United States and so-called emerging market countries, from Brazil to South Korea. The trouble is that other advanced economies aren't healthy.　　Deflation could emerge from simultaneous slumps in the world's three major economies. Prices drop because there's too little global demand chasing too much global supply—everything from steel to shoes. Japan's ills are well known. Its banks are awash in bad loans. Less understood (at least in the United States) is the fact that Europe's troubles stem significantly from Germany. Germany is Europe's “sick man”, just as Japan is Asia's. Only 15 years ago, these countries seemed poised to assume leadership of the world economy. Now they are dragging it down.